Read through my NFL tips for Week 10.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Best bet: Bears -4.5
The Packers and Bears renew their rivalry on Monday morning at Soldier Field, Chicago. The Packers will be missing Aaron Rodgers which has the Bears as favourites. Without Rodgers, the Packers offence has obviously struggled in a three-game losing streak. They haven’t scored over 17 points in those games and the defence has struggled to contain opponents. Last week, they were well beaten by the Lions at home 30-17. For the Bears, they’re coming off the bye and will be confident of beating the Rodger-less Packers. Before the bye, they lost a low scoring game against the in-form Saints 20-12. But they have won two straight at home against the Panthers and Ravens. They’ll also be looking to avenge a 35-14 loss earlier in the season against the Packers. So in the end, the Bears are the best bet in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Best bet: Titans -5.5
The 5-3 Titans are well in the race for the AFC South and this is another important home game for them. They have won three straight games and beat the Ravens by 3 points at home last week. While for the Bengals, inconsistency has been the story of the season. Last week, the Jaguars D was too much for the Bengals as they managed just a single touchdown in a 23-7 result. They’ve struggled on the road in the last two games, scoring 21 total points. However, Andy Dalton should enjoy facing the Titans 29th ranked passing defence. But the difference will be takeaways. The Titans D intercepted Joe Flacco twice last week and Dalton has 8 interceptions this season. The Titans should run the ball effectively against the Bengals run D that allows 116.5 yards per game. With the division on the line, I’ll back the Titans to beat the Bengals.
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Best bet: Saints WIN
This is one of the more interesting morning games as both sides are in playoff contention. The Saints travel to Buffalo on an impressive six-game winning streak. Drew Brees has been outstanding at Quarterback for the Saints and the passing attack is dominating teams. But the Saints defence has also benefited. They average just 19 points allowed per game and in their last 3 wins, they’ve allowed just 13 ppg. For the 5-3 Bills, this is a key game for their AFC East chances. They had a huge setback against the Jets last week as they allowed 34 points in a 34-21 loss. But they have been impressive at home this season going 4-0. But the difference in this matchup is the Saints offence against the Bills D. The Bills allow 260 passing yards per game and the Saints average 27.6 ppg compared to the Bills 21.8. I’m expecting a high scoring game with the Saints coming out on top by around 1-7 points.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
Best bet: Lions -10.5
The 4-4 Lions face the winless Browns (0-8) in an important home game on Monday. The Lions returned to the winner’s list with a 30-17 victory over the Packers last week. The Browns are enduring another tough season and the offence is the main problem. They average just 14 ppg and haven’t scored over 17 points in their last 5 games. In the head to head, the Lions are 3-0 against the Browns. They last met in 2013 and the Lions won 31-17. This season the Browns are 0-5 on the road and 1-6 ATS overall. The Lions don’t have a great record against the line (4-9 overall) but they should enjoy facing the Browns.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Best bet: Steelers -10
Pittsburgh is coming off the bye and has won three straight games. Sitting at 6-2, the Steelers are in prime position to win the AFC North for another season. They have dominated the Colts in history with an 8-2 record since 1996. They’ve also won the last four meetings and have covered in the last three games. The Colts broke a three-game losing streak last week as they beat the Texans 20-14. They’ve battled hard this season without Andrew Luck as they have a 3-6 record. But the Colts D will need to stop the Steelers offence for a chance at victory. They rank last in the NFL for overall defence and passing defence. In contrast, the Steelers are ranked 2nd for overall defence. So I can see the Steelers covering the 10.5 line.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Best bet: Chargers +4.5
Jacksonville looks to continue their form on Monday as they battle the Titans for the AFC South division. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games and have allowed just 7 points in their last 2 games. The defence is ranked #1 in the NFL for overall defence and they’re arguably the best sack defence in the league. The Chargers are back from the bye and they’ll be looking for their 4th win of the season. Last time out, they lost in New England by 8 points but had won three in a row previously. They do have a great record against the Jaguars having won 6 in a row. They did meet last season and the Chargers won 38-14 at home. However, the Jaguars are in much better form currently and they have playoffs on their mind. I think this will be a close game and the Chargers have a 12-5-1 record against the line. The Jaguars are 3-6 ATS at home and 0-5 ATS versus the Chargers. So I’ll go with the Chargers +4.5.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Best bet: Under 43.5 points
Tipped by many to not many games this season, the Jets are sitting at 4-5. They’re still an outside chance for a wildcard spot as well. Last week, they thrashed the Bills 34-21 and will be coming off a long rest from the victory. In contrast, the Buccaneers are on a 5 game losing streak and need to find form against the Jets. In their last home game, they scored just 3 points and have scored just 13 total points in their last 2 games. They’re also 0-5 ATS when playing the Jets. At home, they’re just 1-4 ATS at home. The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS overall in their last 7 games. But the best bet in this game would be the under total points. It’s 6-1 in this matchup and the two sides combined for just 35 points in the last meeting. The Jets are also 4-2 against the under on the road and the under is 6-1 in the Buccaneers last 7 home games. Take the under.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
Best bet: Over 40.5 points
The 4-4 Redskins host the 6-2 Vikings in an NFC battle on Monday. The Redskins will be confident after a 17-14 victory in Seattle last week. But the Vikings will be a challenge. They’ve won 4 in a row and will be fresh from the bye. The defence has been strong as they average just 16 ppg. They also have a 6-4 record against the Redskins. But the best bet here would be the over total. It’s 5-0 in this matchup and the Redskins are 4-1 against the over total. In their last 14 home games, the over total has saluted in 10 of those game. Take the over total.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams
Best bet: Rams -12
The 6-2 Rams are leading the NFC West and they’ll look for win number 7 against the Texans. The Rams offence has been firing over the last 3 wins and Jared Goff will enjoy facing the Texans passing D. They rank 31st in the NFL. But Todd Gurley could have a tough time against their number 1 ranked rush defence. For the Texans, the loss of QB DeShaun Watson has hurt their season and they’ve now lost two in a row. The two sides last met in 2013 and the Rams were victorious 38-13. They’re coming off 51 points against the Giants and I can’t see the Texans getting an upset. Back the Rams.
New York Giants at San Franciso 49ers
Best bet: Under 42 points
Two of the most disappointing teams of the season clash in San Francisco in this late Monday game. The 1-7 Giants travel across the country after allowing 51 points last week against the Rams. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games and struggle on both sides of the field. But the 49ers have been much worse. They’ve scored 10 points in 3 straight games so this should be a low scoring game. The Giants average just 16 ppg and the 49ers average 15. The under total has a good trend in this matchup as well, going 5-2 when the Giants travel to San Francisco. The 49ers are also 17-8 against the under total and the Giants are 9-4 on the road against the under total. Take the unders.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
Best bet: Under 48.5 points
Dallas is on a 3 game winning streak but the offence will miss running back Ezekiel Elliott. He’s been suspended for the next 6 games. They average 148 rush yards per game and 28 points per game. But the Falcons are suffering a Super Bowl loss hangover this season. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games and sit at 4-4. Their season is well on the line here against the Cowboys. The total points are quite high at 48 points and the under total is 4-1 when the Cowboys travel to Atlanta. They’re also 15-6 on the road against the under. The Falcons are struggling for points and they’re 4-1 against the under total. Take the under total.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Best bet: Patriots -7.5
They meet again.
— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2017
The 6-2 Patriots head to Denver in the Monday feature night game. They’ve won 4 straight games and can almost seal the AFC East with a win. The Patriots have dealt with injuries all season, yet the team has shown improvements on both offence/defence. After allowing 31 ppg in the first 4 weeks of the season, they’ve allowed just 12 pgg. They also just allowed 3 points in this matchup last season on the road. The Broncos are riding a 4 game losing streak and their season will be truly over if they lose here. Last week, they were thrashed by the Eagles 51-23 and will likely struggle against Brady. The Patriots rank first in the NFL in passing yards and the Broncos are ranked 24th for overall defence. The Broncos are also 1-5 ATS overall in their last 6 games and 3-6 ATS versus the Patriots. Take the Patriots to cover the line.
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
Best bet: Under 38 points
The 6-3 Panthers host the 4-4 Dolphins on Tuesday. The Panthers are battling with the Saints for the NFC South crown and all home games are crucial. They have beaten the Falcons and Buccaneers over recent weeks. I can see their stout defence enjoying facing the Dolphins as well. They average just 17 points allowed per game and the Dolphins are ranked last for points scored (14). They’ve lost 2 straight games and were shutout in their last road game (40-0). But I can see a low scoring game here. The Dolphins are 6-3 against the under total overall and 4-1 on the road. The under total is also 4-1 when the Dolphins face the Panthers. In the last meeting, the two sides combined for just 36 points. Take the under total.